运输指数下跌，预示股市面临风险。指数有望创下自 10 月以来最糟糕的一个月。
作为美国经济风向标的运输公司上周发出了烟雾信号，道琼斯运输平均指数跌至 11 月以来的最低水平，并有望连续第三周收低。此外，损失使该指数远远低于其 200 天移动平均线，这是交易员密切关注的长期趋势指标。它也有望创下自 10 月以来最糟糕的一个月。
尽管联合航空控股公司公布了令人鼓舞的业绩，其乐观的前景表明消费者保持强劲，但股价仍出现下跌。这使得人们将注意力集中在卡车运输和物流公司上，其中两家公司——J.B. Hunt Transport Services 和 Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings——警告称，货运行业面临严峻形势，包括价格疲软，利润率正在下降。
因此，两个共同提供经济状况线索的股市指标现在发出了早期谨慎信号，这种情况通常意味着未来会出现更多波动。一个百年历史的市场智慧——道琼斯理论——要求道琼斯工业平均指数的任何走势都需要运输指数的类似走势来证实，反之亦然，才能真正保持这一方向。
卡车运输股票：公司目前表现如何
“我们担心的是，道琼斯运输指数的疲软往往预示着更广泛的经济疲软，”Evercore ISI 首席股票和量化策略师 Julian Emanuel 表示。虽然目前没有这样的迹象，但该公司确实预测第四季度将开始出现温和的衰退。
运输类股
“道琼斯运输股能成为这种发展的前沿吗？绝对可以，”该策略师补充道。
运输指数的下跌是 Evercore ISI 论点的一部分，即标准普尔 500 指数目前的调整不会在测试其自身的 200 天移动平均线（目前约为 4,600）之前结束。“如果经济疲软变得明显，尤其是如果通胀持续高企，这种调整可能会进一步加剧并持续更长时间，”Emanuel 补充道。
本周，随着地缘政治紧张局势的加剧和美联储日益鹰派的立场打击了市场情绪，人们对大盘的紧张情绪加剧。货运市场持续衰退的迹象进一步加剧了这些担忧。
J.B. Hunt 在其季度业绩中发出了第一声警告，称需求疲软，导致整个集团的股价下跌。随后，Knight-Swift 下调了第一季度和第二季度的业绩预期，令市场更加悲观。J.B. Hunt 和 Knight-Swift 在北美最大的租赁运输公司运输主题百强榜单中分别排名第三和第七。
罗素 3000 卡车运输指数有望创下自 2022 年 6 月以来的最大单周跌幅，跌幅最大的是 J.B. Hunt、Forward Air Corp.、Saia Inc.、ArcBest Corp.、XPO Inc.、Marten Transport Ltd.、Heartland Express Inc. 和 Landstar System Inc.
“我们现在看到的需求情况表明，底部可能仍在我们前面，”Loop Capital Markets 分析师 Rick Paterson 表示，他本周下调了对 Knight-Swift 的评级。不过，一些人表示，现在开始担心本周运输类股下跌发出的更广泛信号可能还为时过早。
“传统观点认为，当道琼斯工业指数和道琼斯运输指数都处于上升趋势时，股票会走强。从长远来看，情况一直如此，但最近情况并非如此，”Ned Davis Research 美国行业策略师 Robert Anderson 表示。“所以从整体市场角度来看，我不会太担心。”
此外，尽管货运市场艰难，但铁路运营商 CSX Corp. 的业绩略高于预期，这表明该行业的某些领域可能继续保持弹性。
“由于疫情，货运经济火爆，我们现在正在恢复正常，”彭博情报的 Lee Klaskow 表示。“非服务经济约占 GDP 的 30%，因此货运衰退可能仍会导致 GDP 增长。”
Transportation Index Falls, Signaling Risks for Stock Market
Index on Pace for Worst Month Since October
Transportation companies that serve as a bellwether for the American economy sent up a smoke signal last week.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average tumbled to levels last seen in November and was on track to end lower for the third straight week. Moreover, the losses pushed the index deep below its 200-day moving average, a long-term trend indicator that traders closely watch. It is also on pace for the worst month since October.
The declines come despite encouraging results from United Airlines Holdings Inc., whose upbeat outlook suggested the consumer is staying strong. That puts the focus on trucking and logistics companies, two of which — J.B. Hunt Transport Services and Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings — warned of challenging conditions in the freight industry, including weak prices that were eroding margins.
As a result, two stock market gauges that together provide a clue about the state of the economy are now flashing early signs of caution, a situation that typically means more volatility lies ahead. A century-old market wisdom — the Dow Theory — requires that any move made by the Dow Jones Industrial Average needs to be confirmed by a similar move by the transport index and vice versa, for that direction to really hold.
TRUCKING STOCKS: How companies are faring right now
“Our concern is that it is frequently the case that Dow Transports’ weakness is a sign of broader economic weakness to come,” said Julian Emanuel, chief equity and quantitative strategist at Evercore ISI. While there are no such signs at present, the firm does forecast a mild recession to begin in the fourth quarter.
transportation stocks
“Could Dow Transports be the leading edge of such a development? Absolutely,” the strategist added.
The decline in the transport index is a part of Evercore ISI’s thesis that the current correction in the S&P 500 will not end before testing its own 200-day moving average, that currently stands around 4,600. “If economic weakness becomes apparent, especially if inflation stays sticky, that correction could go deeper and last longer,” Emanuel added.
Nervousness about the broader markets intensified this week, as the dual blows from simmering geopolitical tensions and an increasingly hawkish Federal Reserve battered sentiment. The signs of a stubborn recession in the freight markets are fueling those concerns further.
J.B. Hunt fired the first warning shots during its quarterly results, saying demand was weak, sending shares of the whole group lower. Then Knight-Swift followed with lowered guidance for its first and second quarters, spreading the gloom deeper. J.B. Hunt and Knight-Swift rank No. 3 and No. 7, respectively, on the Transport Topics Top 100 list of the largest for-hire carriers in North America.
The Russell 3000 Trucking Index is poised for its worst weekly loss since June 2022, with the declines led by J.B. Hunt, Forward Air Corp., Saia Inc., ArcBest Corp., XPO Inc., Marten Transport Ltd., Heartland Express Inc. and Landstar System Inc.
“We’re now looking at a demand picture that suggests the bottom might still be ahead of us,” said Loop Capital Markets analyst Rick Paterson, who downgraded his recommendation on Knight-Swift this week.
Still, some say it may be too early to start worrying about the broader signals from this week’s slide in transportation stocks.
“The conventional wisdom used to be that stocks were stronger when both the Dow Industrial and Dow Transports were in uptrends. That has been the case over the very long term but not the case recently,” said Robert Anderson, U.S. sector strategist at Ned Davis Research. “So I wouldn’t be too worried from an overall market perspective.”
Also, results from railroad operator CSX Corp. were slightly above expectations, despite the tough freight market, suggesting some corners of the industry may continue to stay resilient.
“The freight economy was on fire due to the pandemic and we are now normalizing,” said Bloomberg Intelligence’s Lee Klaskow. “The non-service economy accounts for about 30% of the GDP, so you can have a freight recession and still have GDP growth.”