能源研究员Enverus 驳斥了国际能源署的石油峰值预测，理由是燃油经济性标准、电动汽车采用放缓以及电动汽车充电。
能源研究员 Enverus 表示，由于美国燃油经济性标准不尽如人意以及电动汽车采用放缓，全球石油需求在本世纪末之前不会达到峰值。
根据该公司 4 月 9 日发布的一份报告，Enverus 驳斥了国际能源署的石油峰值预测，而是预测到 2030 年原油需求将上升到每天约 1.08 亿桶。报告作者 Al Salazar 表示，该公司的最新估计比去年的预测高出约 300 万桶/日。
“包括我们在内的人们一直高估了电动汽车和燃油经济性标准的影响，”Salazar 在接受采访时表示。“就电动汽车的普及而言，我们对电动汽车的看法更为保守，特斯拉的汽车销量下降，福特转向混合动力汽车。”
Enverus 预计全球石油需求增长将逐渐放缓，但不会达到峰值。该公司表示，供应成本上升和新项目的缺乏可能会推高原油价格，尤其是在 2030 年之后，并可能在未来十年带来需求峰值。该公司还表示，国际能源署的悲观估计或石油输出国组织的乐观看法需要在短时间内对消费进行重大改变——而“历史对他们不利”。
国际能源署在 10 月份的《世界能源展望》中表示，由于清洁能源转型势头强劲，化石燃料将在 2030 年之前达到峰值。这种观点与业内许多人的观点背道而驰。上个月，参加标普全球会议 CERAWeek 的石油行业高管表示，他们预计未来许多年石油消费量都将上升。
Energy Researcher: Peak Oil Won’t Happen Before 2030
Enverus Dismisses Peak-Oil Predictions by the IEA Because of Fuel Economy Standards, Slowing EV Adoption
Global oil demand won’t peak before the end of this decade because of underwhelming fuel economy standards and slowing adoption of electric vehicles in the U.S., energy researcher Enverus says.
Enverus is dismissing peak-oil predictions by the International Energy Agency and instead forecasting that crude demand will rise to about 108 million barrels a day by 2030, according to an April 9 report by the firm. Its latest estimate is about 3 million barrels a day more than last year’s outlook, according to the report’s author, Al Salazar.
“People including ourselves have been overestimating the impact of electric vehicles and fuel economy standards,” Salazar said in an interview. “We’ve incorporated a more conservative view on electric vehicles in terms of the uptake, with Tesla selling less cars and with Ford pivoting to hybrids.”
Enverus expects global oil demand growth to gradually slow, but not peak. The firm said rising supply costs and a lack of new projects will likely push crude prices higher, particularly after 2030, and could bring peak demand in the next decade. It also said bearish IEA estimates or bullish views of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries require significant changes to consumption over a short period to happen — and “history is not in their favor.”
The IEA said in its World Energy Outlook in October that fossil fuels will peak before 2030 due to the clean energy transition gaining momentum. Such views run contrary to many within the industry. Last month, top oil executives attending the CERAWeek by S&P Global conference said they expect consumption to rise for many years to come.